Provincial Matters

Well, I came back today to KW and got to attend the KW Provincial Nomination Meeting. It happened to be the first contested provincial nomination meeting, and this one was to elect the person to hopefully replace Elizabeth Witmer in the upcoming provincial election (yeah, I know, it feels weird to be talking about provincial politics, especially with a somewhat larger nomination meeting held today), but it never hurts to start thinking ahead to the election which will probably still be before the Federal one.

So anyways, unfortunately my choice for candidate, Jeff Henry, didn't quite win, but he did put up an excellent battle. I have a feeling lots of people in the room got their first impressions of him today, and I think they were truly impressed. So now our candidate in KW for the next election will be Louise Ervin, who I know we are all now hoping will be able to knock of 'Liz, and help make the Kitchener-Waterloo area a much stronger Liberal area in the next McGuinty government.

Democrat Debate

Well, in what feels way too early so far, the Democrats had their first debate tonight. A good chance to see how the candidates stack up against each other, and find out where they stand. Obviously, Iraq seems to be the top topic, and it is interesting to see everyone try to defend their initial positions on the war, their decisions to fund the war, and anything else involved in that.

I haven't watched it all yet, and I may comment more once I've seen it and seen some analysis, but it definitely still seems to be a 3-person race. I don't see any of the minor players having any real chance, since none of them even seem to have any position that is strikingly different from the others. If anything, they're not setting themselves up in any position that gives them a shot. I mean, they all seem to be even more Liberal than the main 3, which doesn't really give them any spot on the spectrum to really grab a foothold.

*UPDATE:
Watching some post-debate recap, it seems to be universal that Clinton was the best one. The main talking points are that she was poised, she answered solidly, and showed that she could be presidential. Obama was a bit slow in his answers, and wasn't overly great in it. However, it'll be interesting to watching him in the next few debates, to see if he can pick it up. Edwards wasn't great in it, and he needs to get his views out, but I do still think that he has the best policies.

Better late than never

Well, the Conservatives appear to have an environmental plan, which will meet the Kyoto targets... by 2020. Or maybe 2025. But eventually, they will be met.

So, it's obviously not a perfect plan, since the targets won't be met for a long time from now, but at least it is a plan. While it would be better to target for only a few years late (maybe reaching targets by 2015, say), the big question now is if it will actually be enforced.

It's better than nothing, and the Globe seems to think nobody will overly like it. It is a plan, at similar to the Afghanistan vote for the NDP, it's a choice whether to accept a target that's later than you like, or continue holding out for something better, which won't be coming.

*UPDATE: Well, thanks to Scott for pointing it out, but it appears that the Greens have a statement saying how these targets are weaker than the previous ones. Now, I won't take everything the Greens say at face value, and I do feel that targets for 2020 are better than targets for 2050, but there is still the point that the Conservatives are trying to use different baselines (2006 vs 2003), and that it really doesn't come too close to the Kyoto commitments, even by 2020. I still feel it's better than nothing, and that it could be used as a starting point. We just need to push the Conservatives to do more.

Impeach Cheney

Well, looks like one of the long-shots for '08 has made a play, with Kucinich introducing a motion to impeach Cheney. Now, he basically has no real supporters of this yet, but we'll have to see how far it goes.

Afghanistan motion

Well, the motion was defeated today by the Conservatives and NDP, one saying it went too far, the other not far enough.

Now, I would need to actually read the motion, but it still seems weird the NDP not liking it. I mean, I guess they're trying to make the argument that it would be similar to saying they want Kyoto targets by 2012, so they would vote down a plan that meets the targets by 2015 (or 2050, as the Conservatives would put it). Really, if they don't like it and object to the mission, would it not make even more sense for them to simply abstain from voting? That way the bill would at least pass, and I can't see how they could argue that life without the bill further advances their cause than life with the bill, unless if they think that the Conservatives will pull a "We were going to propose withdrawing them now, but now that we already have a date, it's too much trouble to change it" type of philosophy.

Oh well, it's the NDP's loss. Apart from the hippy group that already likes the NDP, I can't see them gaining any votes from this. And even if they voted for the motion, they could still publicly rally that they want the troops out now, and that if they can't have them out now, then as early as possible (which would be right after we've legally agreed to). Unless if they're secretly in some sort of "now or never" type of clan, which I would have lots of trouble with.

Be interesting to see if this is held over his head if/when we go to an election. I'd like to hear his justification, or at least see him squirm trying to argue that no date is better than a date.

April Fool's Day?

Well, in what could only be conceived of as an April Fool's joke 3 weeks late, comes this little gem courtesy of everyone's favourite little news aggregator:

"Let me boil it down for you", notioned the hangdog, "there are some within Dion's grey matter and some within May's green matter who are cooking up a plot to merge the two parties."

Earth Day

Happy Earth Day!

Hopefully the Conservatives will enjoy the spirit of the day and decide to actually do something positive for the environment.

Fruity cocktails good for you

It's true.

A fruity cocktail may not only be fun to drink but may count as health food, U.S. and Thai researchers say

The study did not address whether adding a little cocktail umbrella enhanced the effects.

So with that, have a great weekend all, and remember, drink healthy!

Coalition of the Willing [parties]

Well, the Green-Liberal deal last week caused some controversies, and now it looks like the scope is enlarging, with a new possible deal in St. Catherines. Unfortunately the Liberals aren't exactly running the most progressive candidate in the riding, so it's exactly the greatest thrill to welcome back Walt to the HOC, but we can live with a few bad apples.

Now, I'd tend to think we probably won't be seeing too many more of these type of deals, but overall, I really don't mind. I would personally not mind seeing more deals of the sort, all over the place. I'll give up a candidate in some ridings in BC where it's really a 2-way race between the NDP and Conservatives. For me, I want the HOC to have the best split possible, and in general, that means that I'd rather see NDP, Green, and Liberal MPs over Conservative ones. I don't yet feel like we need any sort of official deal where we end up with a combined flag or anything of the like, and I do think we still need to not entirely give up in some areas (the whole 307/308 riding strategy), but a doing a few small deals here or there to steal a couple conservative seats isn't much trouble.

Although to be honest, most of this would be useless with a STV system where candidates are ranked. Even the MMP system which Ontario will vote on would be something, although I will want to look at it more this summer when I have some time to fully decide whether I will be willing to go fully proportional.

Gun Laws

Well, as the stories that are coming out now are stories of what was lost, one of the more common things for people to think of is "How can we prevent this?" Our work mailing list is up to about 150 posts, in what started out as someone complaining about guns. It has obviously veered off a bit, but the debate about gun controls is definitely still very alive (especially here in the States, where many people cling to their 2nd amendment rights).

Luckily, I haven't seen too many large press stories of people trying to make some political gain from this story. And hopefully we will keep it that way, since there really isn't much that can be said. I've heard arguments from people on both sides of the fence: some say that we should take this as a sign to go further to ban guns; some as a sign that we need to loosen legislation, since at least then if this crazy guy started shooting, maybe someone would have been able to shoot back before he got to his 30 victims.

But for me, I hope no political party tries to go to those cheap political points, since they're both mostly useless in this case. Sure, I'll support tough gun control rules, but you really can't stop these type of situations with those rules. These type of incidents are rare, and will still happen no matter what rules are in place. We do need to find ways to stop this sort of act from occurring again, but the solution to that doesn't have to deal with gun laws.

Charter snub

Well, everyone's rightly upset at the fact that Harper is absent from Charter celebrations. I mean, we all know there are certain parts of the Charter that they don't like, but why in the world would they snub the ceremonies? I mean, I could see it if the Bloc or PQ decided to skip it on the whole "Quebec never signed it" nonsense, but for the PM? That shouldn't happen.

And a big reason why he would go even if just for political gain? People like it. I mean, even thinking purely politically, wouldn't showing up and celebrating it go a long way to try to calm people's worries that he's trying to dismantle it? By skipping out on the ceremony, all it does is give the opposition more fuel to go after him about.

So today, let's take a moment to reflect on the Charter and all the good it's done. If only Harper would do the same sometime.

VA Tech

Terrible. Just terrible.

Very local politics

Well, I thought I would share some very local politics news today, in that I was just elected as the new VP Policy and Planning of our local University of Waterloo Young Liberals Club. I'm very excited for this new opportunity for me, and hopefully in the next year I'll be able to bring forward some good policies on behalf of our club (and hopefully we won't be too caught up in elections to be able to).

Deal with the Greens

Well, I'm actually surprised at this move to not run a Liberal in Central Nova, in an effort to hope that Elizabeth May wins her seat. I never thought we would actually go ahead with it, and instead run someone not very strong and rely on an underground movement to tell people to vote for the Greens, similar to what the Liberals did in calgary centre many years ago to help Joe Clark out (at least, I assume that's what happened when the Liberal vote in the riding dropped by 20% overnight).

And this one is one that makes sense. It certainly will get people talking about how close Dion and May's views are on the environment, and that will certainly help overall. And it's not like we would actually win the seat, so it's not like we're really giving up an MP for it.

Glen also has a nice post up, comparing it to Hargrove's deal with Martin. He finishes it up with a good line as well:

now we just have to hope that May doesn't tacitly endorse the seperatists like good old Buzz did...

Darfur and Paille

No, even if Paille has been accused of many things, saddling the Darfur crisis on him is not what I intend by the title (I just seem to have the habit of always having a few separate topics to mention when I write up posts. Think of it as getting 2 for the price of 1).

First up, Wells has a good link to the Gazette article digging up some stuff about Paille, the new guy investigating the polling scandal (PollScam?) The good news from that is that it seems in the past Paille has been a fan of under the table money, and giving contracts to people who give positive reviews of the government. Maybe he'll be friendly to our old shady dealings?

Secondly, some Google news which I found interesting. It seems that Google and the US Holocaust Memorial Museum have teamed up to let people know what's going on in Darfur. Called Crisis in Darfur, it's a bunch of markings on Google Earth showing the destruction going on in Darfur. A nice initiative that will let people know that maybe it's not all rosy everywhere.

Belinda and PR

Well, everyone has their comments about Belinda's decision to call it a career in politics. Truly a sad state to lose someone of her, uh, intellect. She will be missed dearly (mostly by the blogging community, and at conventions for those who like free booze). Although honestly, if she was going to quit, shouldn't she have had the decency to do so before Martha got nominated somewhere else? I'm sure we'd all have a bit more respect for Belinda if she stepped down and paved the way for Hall-Findlay.

For something else, Greg from DemocraticSpace has another post up on Proportional Representation which will be a secondary focus in the next election. Currently the debate is whether to have it regional or provincial representation (ie. your PR vote would go towards a provincial tally to divvy up candidates or a regional list), and whether it be open-list or closed list (you pick which regional rep you want vs voting for the party and having them run down their list). For all Ontario voters, I'd definitely recommend a stop by there now to get familiar with the topic. I confess to not knowing too much about the different systems, but 15 minutes browsing down his posts gives a great refresher on some basics of it.

And that brings up another matter of its federal implications. In the past, we've seen some talk by a few different parties about some forms of PR, most notably the old reformers (part of their populist appeals) and the NDP more recently (since they want more seats). Obviously now that they're in power, the Conservatives won't be too thrilled with it, but it would be interesting to see if they lose the support of the Bloc, would the NDP say they'd support the Cons with an increased support of some MMPR?

Yay polling numbers!

Some have the Cons and Grits in a statistical tie. Some say that Canadians think Harper is nearly 3 times a better PM than Dion, who is practically tied with Layton. Both are from the same polling firm. Some people took the first as a sign of Liberal increases. Some people look at the second as a cause for concern.

To be honest, I've gotten bored with polling numbers. It's obvious now that people change their minds wildly nowadays, and that based on what sample of people you poll, it's hard to compare. Right now, the only poll numbers I would consider trusting would be if a company came out with one poll number today, and then asked the exact same people 2 weeks or a month from now to see how they've changed. Right now, that's the only way I would consider drawing conclusions, since the margins of errors on these polls are just way too large to pick up the little differences (I mean, +/- 3.1 percentage points? That means one poll could have the Cons at 39% and a majority and another can have them dead tied with the Liberals at 33%, and both be "accurate").

Now, the leader percentages gives some trouble, and that is something that we need to look at. As much as we hate to admit it, Harper gives off the aura of being more Prime Ministerial than Dion does. We have to learn to live with it and overcome it. The numbers themselves should only tell us that Dion needs to work on his demeanor, and that we need to focus our campaigning efforts on the ideas, and not about the people. We all know our ideas and vision are the better choices, so we need to run on that. We also need to think up our retorts when Harper comes hard after Dion when Dion gets uppity to defend his record. The numbers from the poll alone mean nothing, but they will determine how the campaign will be run.

So, does this all mean that we will or won't have an election soon? At this point, these numbers are useless to figure out. Everyone has internal numbers which are a much safer indication of intentions. They'll be looking riding by riding to figure out how stuff is going. I'd still say that we will avoid an election this spring, since I don't see a good chance for the Tories to go to war on it. I obviously wouldn't be surprised to see one, but really, I think the Conservatives will probably feel that they can wait and still be fine. If they can keep their lunatics muzzled, I don't see why they wouldn't try to put in 2 decent years of government and get people used to their style. I mean, nothing serious has gone wrong to the average person so far, so another year of it and the average person won't mind letting them stay on for longer.

A few notes

I had a fairly decent-sized post written up about calculators and computers in classrooms in response to this story, but it got eaten. Let me quickly point out my conclusions which were that we should avoid an over-reliance on electronic aids in school early on, since I don't think it teaches people how to do stuff (there should be no mathematical knowledge which is taught with an electronic aid until it's mastered by hand first).

Next, hope everyone has a good Easter or Passover or weekend, depending on your religious views.

Third, Go Habs Go! Massive game coming up tomorrow, and it should be exciting. Montreal needs to win to clinch, or just make it to OT if NYI doesn't win both their games left. It would be sweet to have it tied late and for Montreal to score the game winner into an empty net to clinch.

That's all I've got to say for now.

Alanis Morissette's My Humps

If you haven't seen this, it's a must to watch.

Liblogs video

Well, when I first got the message last week from Cherniak saying that he was urging all us Liberal bloggers to make some videos to counter the new Tory attack ad and try to get some press, my first reaction was, "hahaha, come on. Can a few of us posting videos on a website actually get any MSM coverage?" I initially took it as a stunt that I figure would at best fail, and at worst, blow up in our face if nobody made videos and we only had like 1-2 videos to "brag" about.

But Jason seems to have pulled it off. Hope we can continue to make videos and keep the grassroots involved with this!

New Conservative Ad

Well, the Conservatives have decided to launch a new ad (the "citations" one). In it, it's basically saying:
1. The Conservatives have solved the fiscal imbalance
2. Dion doesn't believe in the fiscal imbalance
3. If elected, since Dion doesn't believe in the fiscal imbalance, he will take Quebec's money away.

Now for me, I don't see how you make the jump from #1 and #2 to get to #3, but I guess an ad doesn't really have to make sense. I haven't lived in Quebec for a long time, so I'm not sure how it will play. The Conservatives really are trying to hammer home their messages, especially for a party that says they "really don't want an election".

April 2 quick links

I was away over the weekend, but a few quick links:

• Yesterday was April Fools' Day. Pranks are best when they're semi-believable. Some are decent because they are kinda stupid (although I love the comment differentiating labels and folders). And for me, some are just too full of crap to be too funny.


• Devils Fire Julien. What team fires a coach when they have home ice 3 days before the playoffs start? Lou is playing a risky game here.


• Finally, I need me one of these.