Election speculation

Will the government fall over Afghanistan?

I don't think so. For one, as much as us Liberals are vocal about going into an election right away, we'd be in a terrible spot if we did. We have no money. Heck, it'll take us a few months to raise enough to pay off campaign debts, so we're in no rush for one. Especially I think since we won't keep this big boost from the convention for too much longer (hopefully it will stick around, but I don't think we'll stay around 40 for too long).

So when will we have the election? Ideally I think we'd like to go in the Fall, but with the Ontario election that rules out that one. So that means we either have one pre-budget this winter, post-budget in the spring, or wait until next Winter. Post-budget could be tough, since I can't see how the conservatives won't give us an incredibly nice budget, filled with tax cuts and lots of spending promises, under the assumption that they'll never have to actually fulfill them. Pre-budget is a possibility, but that hearkens back to the argument I posted at the top of the post, about money and readiness.

So that leaves next winter. Could we really let the conservatives stay in power for 2 full years before toppling them, especially after Dion's rallying cry for an election at the end of the leadership contest? Honestly, I'm not sure if it's a good idea or not. It would certainly give people more chance to get to know Dion, and would give the Cons more chances to screw up, but it also gives them longer to fix their mistakes, and if they keep without too much trouble for a full year without an ongoing Liberal contest eating up media, could be trouble. I think it's a high risk, high-reward situation to wait that long. Either people will get really pissed off how they're governing and welcome us back with open arms, or people will actually get used to the "new government" and not mind them in power.

So is it worth the risk? I think it could probably be, but I don't see the people higher up taking that chance. I have a feeling that we'll be so trigger happy and probably a bit blinded that we'll rush into an election late this year, maybe mid-May. Will it work? Only time will tell, but it won't be easy.