Leadership poll results

Watching Politics with Don Newman now, they present a new poll by The Gandalf Group. Now, it provided some really interesting results.

Among Liberals, which leader would you vote for:
Dryden 19
Rae 19
Iggy 12
Dion 8
GK 7
Bennett 5
Broson 4
MHF 1
Volpe 1
Fry 1

Among the general public, it breaks down as:
Dryden 19
Rae 17
Iggy 10
Dion 8
Bennett 6
GK 4
Brison 3
MHF 2
Volpe 1
Fry 1

Really interesting, since hardly any other polls have Dryden in the lead. My guess is we may be seeing one of these outlier polls, but it certainly is still interesting to see. My main notes from reading through the details by region for each of the candidates are as follows:

Rae is much more disliked than the others (especially in Ontario, where 43% say they wouldn't vote Lib with him in the lead, compared to 33 Dryden and 35 Kennedy and the rest at 36-40). However, he is a bigger name, so people tend to have larger opinions of him (as evident by the only 8% no responce number, as opposed to 12 Dryden and 17-21 for the others). So electing him may garner us a few votes, but will also turn off many people.

Otherwise, we see Martha, Ignatieff, and Kennedy's numbers seem a bit lower than expected. Most people would think Martha would be ahead of Bennett for the women, but this poll had Bennett consistantly higher. She was even rivalling Brison, Kennedy, and some of the others. And Iggy and Kennedy, even if they are probably the #1-2 if you ask people in the party, don't register as high in this poll. Kennedy does gain a lot in the party vs outside the party, as to be expected.

But the overreaching part of the poll, the non-responces. For leader, even Liberal voters have 23% undecided or no responce. That means that there's still a lot of room for candidates in the next few weeks until super weekend and the next few months until the convention.