National Support

I am very pleased to report that as of 1:15 AM on this Sunday morning, Gerard Kennedy is the only leadership candidate to have support in every province and every territory in this country! Well, okay he has the only delegate for the North-West Territories, and he's one of 2 in Nunavut (the other is undeclared).

Overall, Kennedy seems to have had a good day today, after a somewhat disappointing day yesterday, especially among the Ontario Student Clubs, where I think we all expected we would be doing a bit better. With nearly half the polls reporting, Kennedy sits with 16.3% of the delegate support right now. 4th place for the moment, but very close between him, Dion and Rae.

So as I was looking through the province by province breakdown, I was noticing how the inequity between provinces could skew the totals. Since obviously if we would have had only Ontario, BC, and Alberta reporting, Kennedy would be sitting nicely at or near the top of the list. So I went through each province and copied down how many stations reported and how many delegates each candidate had. Then multiplying by how many ridings have yet to report, I get an extrapolation. Obviously it's not perfect, since each report has a different number of people getting elected (student clubs vs ridings), but I was interested to see if the fact that Manitoba had only 2/21 was really making a big difference in the results. Here are the extrapolated results I get:

Iggy: 29.7%
Rae: 20.3%
Dion: 17.2%
Kennedy: 16.3%
Dryden: 5.5%
Volpe: 4.1%
Brison: 3.6%
MHF: 1%
Undeclared: 2.3%

Comparing to the current results, it's basically 1% less for Iggy and 1% more for Rae (with Dryden getting .5% from a variety of people). Now, I think it's a bit skewed by Manitoba, since I doubt Rae will get 40-50% of the delegates there, but I think in general we can see that the LPC has done a fairly good job of mixing the different regions voting times.