Exos poll
Well, everyone's all aflutter about the recent Ekos poll out today. There still seems to be a lot of people undecided about their second choice (38%), so hard to draw too many conclusions about how to vote strategically. It certainly wasn't a Bob Rae poll as someone speculated last night.
My take on it: We didn't really learn much we didn't know already. Lots of people don't like Iggy (23%). Lots don't like Rae (18%). Hardly anybody doesn't like Dion (3%) or Kennedy (2%). I'd still like to see the full poll numbers to get a real guage of everything, but for Dion, mentioning that 13% of his delegates may not show could be a big blow. If that is true, then he drops to 14-15%, and many people may not think of him as being so good (perhaps mistaking no-shows as a lack of ex-officio support).
All that this poll really tells us is that we're going to have an important vote when we get down to 4 people. It will most likely be Dion or Kennedy dropped, and by all indication, neither our supporters or theirs are fans of the top 2 guys, so I think there's a very good chance that whichever stays on will be able to surpass Rae, and have lots of momentum going into the final against Iggy. It's sure going to be interesting in 4 weeks.
3 comments:
The poll apparently only represents Ontario and Quebec delegates, so it underrepresents Kennedy and overrepresents Dion.
This poll just doesn't count. It's limited.
I'd like to see an SES poll - seems to be the only accurate polls consistently.
I'd say this is a "promote Rae" poll.
Delegate turnout is going to be one of the big stories in this campaign.
Polls are not likely to show this information very well. After all, those who are willing to answer the telephone are likely more willing to go. Those who are not willing to talk, are more likely to skip the convention.
Betting on who will turn out is a mug's game. But once that information is known on Friday morning, we will know a whole lot more about where this thing is going.
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